A new Shimano XTR Di2 is coming, but will enough people care?

Shimano’s new XTR Di2 mountain bike groupset is imminent, but it’s charging headfirst into a seriously uphill battle.

Much ink has been spilled recently – and rightfully so – about Shimano’s upcoming XTR Di2 M9200 electronic mountain bike transmission, pictures of which have been circulating around the web for the past few weeks. Shimano hasn’t made any official statements about it, but a few key details can be gleaned right away: it’s wireless, it sticks with the existing 1x12 format, the crankset is still made of forged aluminum, and this being Shimano, you can rest assured it’s even more refined-feeling in its shifting and braking performance than anything the Japanese company has produced before.

In a vacuum, a second-generation XTR Di2 groupset should be cause for celebration since it’s taken more than ten years to get to this point. That first-generation’s 2x11 format was objectively fantastic, but also almost immediately obsolete given it unfortunately coincided with SRAM’s big (and very successful) push for 1x drivetrains. Shimano quietly discontinued XTR Di2 after a fairly short run, eventually bringing Di2 back at the XT level in 2022 – but only for e-bikes. Sponsored athletes are carrying on with the (admittedly still superb) XTR mechanical groupset, but seeing as how Shimano introduced that back in 2018, even that is positively ancient by typical cycling industry standards.

What has SRAM been doing over that same period of time? Gee, where to start…

The American brand debuted not one, but two electronic mountain bike groupsets in 2019 – XX1 Eagle AXS and XO1 Eagle AXS – just one season after Shimano launched its current-generation mechanical XTR. Eagle AXS rolled out with an entirely wireless design, meaning there was nothing but radio waves connecting the shifter to the rear derailleur, whereas Shimano’s Di2 mountain bike stuff had always been fully wired from end to end.

As nice as the electronic part was for its consistent performance, it was the wireless bit that really moved the needle here. Public reception to the wireless format was overwhelmingly positive. Given how seemingly everything else in consumer electronics at the time had already ditched its wires (can you say, Apple AirPods?), AXS felt cutting-edge and modern. Mechanics and assembly factories loved it, too, particularly as full-suspension bikes grew increasingly complicated.

Just two years later, SRAM trickled down its AXS technology to the GX Eagle level, offering identical overall shifting performance as the higher-end options, but at a much more accessible price point.

As it turns out, SRAM was only getting started.

Two years after GX Eagle AXS came out (and just four years after the first-generation Eagle AXS stuff came out) SRAM introduced Transmission. This was again a trio of wireless electronic mountain bike drivetrains, this time introducing an entirely new (and remarkably robust) style of rear derailleur attachment as well as shift performance that’s proven to be ridiculously ambivalent to abuse. It may not be the fastest-shifting stuff around (particularly for multiple shifts), but even when pedaling an e-bike at full power, you can rest assured that when you push that shift button, the chain moves where it’s supposed to go without sounding like it’s trying to eat itself.

If you survey the spec sheets of various popular models from mainstream brands, it doesn’t take long to see how dominant SRAM has become in the mountain bike space, spearheaded by its electronic flagships.

Of the four Epic Evos that Specialized sells in the US, for example, none are equipped with Shimano components. Trek currently has 13 (?!) Fuel EX models for sale, and only four have Shimano groupsets. The Santa Cruz Blur? You’ve got nine complete builds to choose from, all with SRAM. The Yeti SB120 is also 100% SRAM.

Pivot Cycles is an outlier with close to an even distribution across the board, but even Giant – who historically has had a very close relationship with Shimano – only has a 50/50 split on its bread-and-butter Trance X range of trail bikes.

Needless to say, Shimano seems to have its work cut out for it.

Given the huge market share SRAM currently commands at the OEM level, is it too little, too late for Shimano? Has the Japanese powerhouse sat on its hands for far too long and practically spoon-fed its lunch to its American rival? Or is Shimano still a big enough deal that eager supporters will be more than willing to jump back on to the bandwagon once the new parts come out?

I don’t have a crystal ball at home, so I instead contacted a bunch of key folks within the industry who do for their take – people who have maybe already seen XTR Di2, ridden it, know details about it, and/or are directly involved in the decision-making processes that will determine how much of this stuff you’ll see on new bikes in the near future. They didn’t reveal too much in terms of specific technical details (weights, gear ratios, etc.). Rather, these were more general conversations about the overall performance and potential impact of Shimano’s upcoming flagship mountain bike groupset.

Because the information being discussed is obviously highly sensitive, none of the people I spoke to will be identified here (nor the companies for whom they work), and none of the quotes are verbatim.

Still, I think you’ll be able to get the gist of things here. Is Shimano too late to the party? Maybe, but maybe not. Probably. We’ll see.

Read on.

Shimano will always be Shimano, late or otherwise

Any brand with as storied a history as Shimano is bound to have a long list of both successes and failures. Indeed, it hasn’t always gotten things right, and there certainly have been some notable misses. But when the company does land a hit, it’s often a big blow.

“Shimano just has to do what they do best: go slow and make really good products. People have such faith in them. I’m looking at a new bike right now with Shimano parts that haven’t changed in four years, but people are still swearing by it. They have such a broad following and a long, substantial history in this industry. I think people are frustrated with Shimano, but I don’t think they care. They’re on their own schedule. They go slow, but they do really, really good work.”

As good as Transmission is, SRAM has left a few big openings, too.